Learn The Basics

Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a platform where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief in the probability of that event occurring. In Speculation’s case, these outcomes are tied to financial indicators such as asset prices, market movements, or economic data.

Market Structure

Speculation offers several market formats designed to capture different types of forecasts and trading preferences. Each market type allows participants to express their outlook on future price movements through structured binary contracts.

Threshold Markets

Threshold Markets are structured around the question: “How high (or low) will an asset’s price reach by a given time?” Within each threshold market, there are multiple sub-markets, each representing a specific target price. For example, a market may include contracts such as:

• Will Bitcoin exceed $65,000 by Friday?

• Will Bitcoin exceed $70,000 by Friday?

• Will Bitcoin exceed $75,000 by Friday?

Each target level functions as an independent yes/no contract, allowing traders to position themselves across different thresholds and timeframes according to their expectations of market volatility or momentum.

Directional Markets

Directional Markets focus on short-term movements in price, typically framed as “Will the price go up or down within a specific period?” These markets allow users to take a direct stance on immediate price direction — for example:

• Will Ethereum’s price increase in the next 15 minutes?

• Will gold decline by the end of the trading day?

Directional markets are designed for faster-paced trading and shorter time horizons, giving participants an opportunity to capitalise on near-term sentiment or reaction to market events.

Flexibility Across Timeframes

Both Threshold and Directional Markets operate across multiple timeframes, allowing users to engage in short-term speculation or longer-term forecasts. This flexibility enables a diverse range of trading strategies, from intraday predictions to weekly or event-based outlooks.